GainStreet — the Daily Brief, the Boyz slate, and the receipts
Morning brief, Friday, September 25, 2026: ARM stumbled on Oracle's delayed buildout, while our Google position is busy launching AI chips into actual orbit
Published
Futures Rise as Iran Truce Talk Eases Oil
Stock futures bounced as oil retreated on potential Strait of Hormuz progress, providing brief relief as benchmark 10-year yields hover near 5.17%.
Sources: Reuters: reported Hormuz negotiations
Source review · 2026-09-25: The linked reporting describes negotiations, not an agreed ceasefire. Market levels are the original edition’s snapshots.
VKTX Drops 11.8% on $500M Offering
Shares slid 11.76% after Viking priced an upsized $500 million stock and convertible debt deal at a discounted $35 per share.
Sources: Viking: stock and convertible offering terms
Source review · 2026-09-25: The $35 price applies to the common-stock offering; the $500 million total also includes $225 million of convertible notes.
ARM Slides 7.9% on Cloud Project Delays
Shares fell 7.88% as reported delays in Oracle data center expansions prompted sharp profit taking in the richly valued chip designer.
Sources: Benzinga: Arm, Project Jupiter and Oracle’s response
Source review · 2026-09-25: Clarification: Oracle said Project Jupiter remained on schedule. The report concerns potential delays and contractual protections; it does not establish a confirmed delay or a single cause for Arm’s move.
Planet Labs Jumps 7.6% on Google Test
Planet jumped 7.57% after Google announced an orbital test of space-bound AI chips launching next week aboard a SpaceX mission.
Sources: Google: Project Suncatcher’s orbital test
Source review · 2026-09-25: Google describes an early hardware test with Planet, not a commercially proven space-computing service.
Watch Michigan Sentiment and 5.2% Yields
Track morning consumer sentiment prints and whether 10-year yields hold below 5.20% ahead of Micron's critical earnings report next Wednesday.
Sources: Micron: September 30 earnings call
Source review · 2026-09-25: Micron confirms the earnings date. The 5.20% yield threshold is GainStreet’s watch level, not a forecast from the linked source.
Posture: Defensive posture with Fear at 36 and 10-year yields testing 5.16%. Prioritize high-cash-flow value and inflation-resilient quality.
Tickers in focus: GOOGL, ARM, ORCL
Upcoming earnings
Read today's full edition with the day's moves → · Archive
The GainStreet Boyz — the slate
Stages: Buy Zone means we would buy at today's price; Hold means the position stays but the easy entry is gone; Take Profit means price is at our value. Reasons are published as written; the ledger records who made each call.
Buy Zone (2)
- NVDA (price $225 · G-Street value $341 · upside 51.9% · since entry +6.2%)
Up 1.3% to $222, 5% above our $212 entry. Our value moved up to $307, so 38% remains at 14x forward. GPU rental rates are rising into October — the Nebius hike repriced every neocloud — which is what a supply-constrained product looks like. - AVGO (price $352 · G-Street value $509 · upside 44.6% · since entry -9.5%)
Up 3% to $358, 8% under our $389 entry and closing the gap for a third session. Our value moved up to $506, so 41% remains. AI semi revenue ran $16.7B last quarter, up 221%. Still the first name we would add to.
Hold (13)
- GOOGL (price $344 · G-Street value $416 · upside 21.0% · since entry -4.4%)
Up 0.6% to $350, 3% under our $360 entry. Our value moved up to $416 as targets reset after the no-breakup ad-tech ruling, so 19% is back on the table. The weekend headline — Gemini guessed its way into three real companies’ systems during a May security test, confirmed only when the Journal asked — is a trust problem, not an earnings one. Hold, and closer to a buy-zone than it has been since August. - TSM (price $451 · G-Street value $567 · upside 25.5% · since entry +7.4%)
Using the September 24 reference close of $451.15, TSMC is about 7% above our $420.39 entry. Q2 revenue rose 36% in New Taiwan dollars, with a 55.6% net margin, and 2nm accounted for 3% of wafer revenue, so the position stays. The system G-Street Value of $566.67 rests on three June and July analyst targets whose sources are not verified, and the USD-ADR basis of those targets has not been checked, so we do not describe this as a discounted entry. Hold while those inputs are verified. - META (price $750 · G-Street value $762 · upside 1.5% · since entry +13.5%)
Using the September 23 reference close of $744.10, Meta trades above the system G-Street Value of $711.65; we do not describe it as a discounted entry. We retain the established advertising franchise ahead of an additional cyclical supplier, while acknowledging heavy reinvestment and weak near-term free cash flow. New Connect product announcements are not yet evidence of profitable adoption. Hold; reassess if core operating returns deteriorate or spending assumptions worsen. The G-Street Value remains provisional. - MU (price $1,083 · G-Street value $1,401 · upside 29.4% · since entry +10.1%)
Using the September 23 reference close of $1,071.88, Micron is about 9% above our $983.12 entry. Signed minimum-price agreements cover part of DRAM and NAND volume and improve visibility without eliminating cyclicality. The September 30 earnings report is a near-term event risk. The system G-Street Value of $1,398.28 uses unverified analyst inputs, including older targets. Hold rather than add before checking the earnings and contract assumptions. - AMZN (price $251 · G-Street value $323 · upside 28.8% · since entry +1.3%)
Up 1% to $254, 2.5% above our $247 entry, with 28% to our $324 value. No news that matters; the Oct 29 print is the next read on AWS re-acceleration. Still the hold closest to a buy-zone promotion on a real dip. - ORCL (price $138 · G-Street value $237 · upside 71.3% · since entry +9.4%)
Using the September 23 reference close of $144.56, Oracle is about 14% above our $126.41 entry. Q1 FY27 revenue growth of 30% and $664B of remaining performance obligations support retention, while cash consumption, debt and contract conversion limit our confidence in new purchases. The system G-Street Value of $236.98 is provisional because the analyst inputs remain unverified. Hold; reassess on financing or contract developments. - APP (price $313 · G-Street value $409 · upside 30.8% · since entry -9.8%)
Using the September 23 reference close of $315.25, AppLovin is about 9% below our $346.80 entry. Issuer-reported second-quarter free cash flow of $863.3M supports retention, while advertiser growth and monetization need continued scrutiny. The system G-Street Value of $408.87 rests on unverified targets. Hold rather than add until operating evidence resolves the advertiser-growth concerns. - UBER (price $69.28 · G-Street value $97.94 · upside 41.4% · since entry -3.9%)
Off 0.5% to $70.50, 2% under our $72 entry. An arbitrator ordered Uber to pay $40M to the parents of a passenger killed after a driver left her on an Orange County freeway, and ruled Prop 22 does not shield Uber from its drivers’ conduct. The dollars are immaterial; the legal theory is what to watch if courts pick it up. 29% to our $91 value: hold. - VST (price $136 · G-Street value $172 · upside 25.9% · since entry -3.1%)
Down 2% to $141, back to our entry, as the 10-year held 5% into the weekend. Contracted nuclear and PJM capacity pricing are the earnings; the rate is the multiple. 24% to our $174 value. - RDDT (price $153 · G-Street value $192 · upside 25.1% · since entry -2.0%)
Using the September 23 reference close of $151.98, Reddit is about 3% below our $156.19 entry. Strong monetization growth and balance-sheet flexibility support retention, but slower guided growth and traffic dependence warrant caution. The system G-Street Value of $191.56 is provisional: its factor leg is capped and the analyst inputs are not independently verified. Hold; reassess with new engagement and earnings evidence rather than waiting for a fixed calendar date. - TDG (price $1,112 · G-Street value $1,420 · upside 27.7% · since entry -10.0%)
Using the September 23 reference close of $1,105.28, TransDigm is about 11% below our $1,235.48 entry. The aftermarket franchise and proposed $240M Extant asset acquisition support retention, while leverage and refinancing costs remain material risks. The system G-Street Value of $1,420.02 is provisional and its forward earnings period needs verification. Hold; review cash generation and financing terms, without treating the prior entry price as a reason to keep it. - TLN (price $301 · G-Street value $438 · upside 45.5% · since entry +1.7%)
Using the September 23 reference close of $300.34, Talen is about 1% above our $296.11 entry. Contracted demand and raised 2026 issuer guidance support retention, while leverage, power-market regulation and our overlapping exposure through Vistra limit enthusiasm for new purchases. The system G-Street Value of $438.09 is provisional because its underlying targets remain unverified. Hold; review contract delivery, cash flow and regulatory developments. - AMAT (price $484 · G-Street value $546 · upside 13.0% · since entry +4.7%)
Using the September 23 reference close of $474.38, Applied Materials is about 3% above our $461.67 entry. Its installed base and process expertise support retention. The system G-Street Value of $556 implies about 17% upside, with the factor leg near the market price and the remaining gap dependent on unverified analyst targets. The issuer guides Q4 revenue to $10.25B plus or minus $0.50B. Hold pending better valuation evidence and the next demand/export-policy updates.
Take Profit (1)
- AMD (price $629 · G-Street value $574 · upside -8.8%)
Booked Thursday at $545 for +18.6% from our $460 entry. It closed Friday at $560, 2.7% above where we sold. We sold within 6% of our value and the stock kept going — that is the price of discipline and it goes on the record. Stays on the board through the week; the receipt is on the ledger.
Top plays
NVDA
Trading at just 14.3x forward earnings despite generating 106% revenue growth and 64% net margins, Nvidia is experiencing an absurd valuation dislocation driven by broad macro jitters. The transition to Vera Rubin architectures and deep system-level integration cements its full-stack monopoly, leaving merchant competitors far behind. Hyperscalers have zero viable near-term alternatives for frontier AI training and high-density inference.
Watch: Monitor datacenter gross margins staying comfortably above 72% and Blackwell-to-Rubin shipment ramp milestones.
AVGO
Broadcom has pulled back 10% from our entry price, offering a rare window into an AI titan trading at just 18.1x forward earnings. Custom silicon revenue is accelerating at 85.5% YoY, backed by a massive $179.2B contracted RPO backlog from hyperscalers designing bespoke XPUs. Between high-margin VCF software stability and unmatched optical networking dominance, the risk-reward setup here is arguably the cleanest on the board.
Watch: Watch for next-quarter custom XPU revenue hitting the guided $34.88B benchmark without gross margin dilution.
The receipts
20 booked picks · 15 open · win rate 80.0% · average +12.9% per call · best SNDK +47.4% · worst TTD -21.5%. Portfolio +12.9% booked, +13.5% with open positions marked to market (win rate 68.6% incl. open). Full track record →
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